Meta will overtake Google in global ad revenue in 2026, according to EMarketer, which describes the repositioning as a ‘watershed’ moment for the industry.
EMarketer forecasts that Meta’s net worldwide ad revenue will reach $243.46bn in 2026, while Google will have to console itself with a paltry $239.54bn.
But Google will still likely sell far more ads than Meta.
Even if EMarketer’s predictions are correct to the decimal, its decision to measure the platforms’ net revenue for advertising means that it is not a fair comparison.
Google sells a lot more ad space than Meta does, but it also pays a lot of money to the apps and websites that host its ads. As a walled garden, Meta has much lower traffic acquisition costs. Google also gives creators between 45% and 55% of the ad revenue it makes against their videos on YouTube; Meta does not pay creators on Instagram anywhere near as much.
So in terms of which platform really dominates online advertising, no changing of the guard is taking place. Meta just does digital advertising more efficiently.